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C15 · WHO HAS BEEN FUNDING THE DEBT, AND WHETHER THEY STILL ARE

Foreign share of federal debt held by the public

30.03
STALE ROBUST DRS 95 quarterly as of 2025-10-01

This tile is stale: the value shown is the last one the source published, never a fabricated current number.

The full history

1970 high 48.96 · low 4.42 · now 30.03 · 8 recessions shaded 2025

How it is read

What it measures
who has been funding the debt, and whether they still are
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × federal debt held by foreign and international investors (Treasury Bulletin OFS-2, via FRED, billions) / federal debt held by the public (millions ÷ 1000). Quarterly since 1970. Strain side declared DOWN at introduction (2026-06-07): a retreating foreign share while issuance grows means the marginal buyer is stepping back and absorption shifts home: the leg of the sustainability equation C14/F10/F12 did not read. Dependence cuts both ways; the high side shows up in F12 and the yield tiles, disclosed. Ownership data publish ~2 quarters late; the long grace covers the lag, and the tile reads STALE honestly if the Bulletin slips further.

Where it comes from

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.

What it read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008 48.20 · CALM
Q4-2018 selloff 38.89 · CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019 41.15 · CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020 40.34 · CALM

Questions it helps answer

  • The Debt : Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?