DATED 2026-06-25 · RECOMPUTED ON EVERY DATA REFRESH As of 25 June 2026, the board is mostly quiet: 10 of 12 relationships are behaving and 40 of 66 levels read calm; across 50 scorable levels that is busier than chance alone would predict (chance puts ~7.2 on watch and ~1.2 at extreme).
decoupled
Stocks vs. bondsTreasuries should hedge equities (negative correlation). When both sell off together, the classic portfolio stabilizer is failing. The statistic has held beyond the decoupled line (z 2.53, threshold 2) in the economically wrong direction for 10+ consecutive readings; persistence is what separates this from a flinch.
strained
Jobs vs. market reactionGood news should lift equities. When strong payrolls sell stocks off, the market is trading the Fed, not the economy. Today's statistic sits at z 1.13, past the strained line (1) but short of decoupled (2, plus persistence).
extreme
CPI inflationReads 4.3: 4.27 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last decade (z 0.49, past the extreme line of 2 against its last decade). Unusual in either direction is strain here.
extreme
CPI energy inflation, year over yearReads 22.1: 22.1 against fixed thresholds (8/20). higher than ~93% of its full record (z 1.66, past the extreme line of 2 against its full record). High is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
CPI inflation, month over month (seasonally adjusted)Reads 0.5: 0.47 against fixed thresholds (0.25/0.35). higher than ~87% of its last 30 years (z 0.89, past the extreme line of 2 against its last 30 years). High is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
PCE inflation, headline, year over year (Fed's target measure)Reads 4.1: 4.07 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~73% of its full record (z 0.33, past the extreme line of 2 against its full record). Unusual in either direction is strain here.
extreme
consumer sentimentReads 49.8: lower than ~100% of its full record: near the bottom of its record (z -2.57, past the extreme line of 2 against its full record). Low is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
equities-to-GDPReads 218.1: higher than ~97% of its last 30 years (z 2.23, past the extreme line of 2 against its last 30 years). High is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
the top-1% wealth shareReads 31.6: 31.6 against fixed thresholds (28.5/30.5). higher than ~92% of its last decade (z 1.9, past the extreme line of 2 against its last decade). High is the strain side for this tile.
Noise floor
Across 50 scorable levels, chance alone would
put about 7.2 on watch and 1.2 at extreme. The board shows 13 and 2.
Genuine outliers (extreme, and not standing trend features): consumer sentiment, equities-to-GDP.
Not a forecast. Not a doom score. A present-tense reading of whether the
relationships that stabilize the system are still doing their job: a
census of states, never a single number.
01
Relationship Integrity
Are the offsets holding?
A stabilizing relationship is a pair that normally
moves so as to absorb shocks: bonds rallying when stocks fall,
expectations holding when prices jump. When a pair stops offsetting,
the system loses a shock absorber. These four are the core; click any
for its full history and the rule that scores it.
1.13 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 5 independent windows (from 94 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 2 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE: Surprise is proxied against the series' own trend (revised data, not real-time consensus); disclosed on Methodology.
2.53 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 5.8 independent windows (from 2,436 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 10 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST: The arithmetic is mechanical: a plain rolling correlation of daily moves, on arctanh-transformed values. But the NORM is regime-dependent: Treasuries hedging equities (negative correlation) is a ~25-year, low-inflation-era phenomenon. Before roughly 2000, stocks and bonds were often POSITIVELY correlated, both driven by inflation. FRED redistributes only ~10 years of S&P 500 data (licensing), so this statistic's reference window sits entirely inside the negative-correlation regime and cannot see the alternative. A positive reading today may be a regime change, not a failing stabilizer; read the state with that caveat.
0.47 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 15.1 independent windows (from 257 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST: Rolling 24-month correlation of monthly changes in the 5y5y breakeven with changes in published CPI: co-movement measured directly. Reconstructed 2026-06-06; see the Methodology changelog.
-1.29 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 118 independent windows (from 3,074 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 4 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST: Initial claims serve as the weekly growth proxy; disclosed on Methodology.
As of
2026-06-20
Four more relationships: the v0.2 spreads (gold vs. real yields,
the dollar vs. auction demand, home prices vs. mortgage rates,
credit vs. equities)
-0.05 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 102.7 independent windows (from 5,695 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 5 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST: Plain rolling correlation of daily moves, on arctanh-transformed values; gold is the official LBMA price, the real yield is the 10y TIPS (DFII10, 2003+). Positive co-movement is the debasement/sovereign-risk side, the tie to the Crisis-Ratio thesis.
0.35 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 40.7 independent windows (from 1,625 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE: Bid-to-cover is sparse (auction-dated) and the correlation cannot separate both-weak from both-strong, disclosed; the strain reading is corroborated by the partner level tiles (the dollar, F12; auction demand, F10), not taken alone.
0.53 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 27.3 independent windows (from 447 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE: Rolling 24-month correlation of monthly Case-Shiller price changes and changes in the 30y fixed rate; the lag from rate to price is real, so read the persistence, not a single month.
-0.17 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation , effective N ≈ 5.1 independent windows (from 689 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 10 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST: Plain rolling correlation of daily moves, on arctanh-transformed values; HY OAS (F1) and the S&P 500. Positive co-movement of rising spreads and rising equity is the divergence tell.
The argument: conditional, and clearly labeled as such
17.6¢
of every federal revenue dollar already goes to interest on the
public debt: the trailing twelve months through 2026-05-31,
straight from the
Treasury's monthly statements
. This is the ratio's spine, read in the present tense. What
happens to it if a single shock moves unemployment, inflation,
and rates together is the model's question, not this board's.
A mathematical warning.
Debt service over available revenue, under any combination of
unemployment, inflation, and rates. The cascade fires only if a
coupling shock overrides the offsetting mechanisms. That
conditionality is the whole point, and it lives on its own site.
78 instruments, grouped by the questions they answer
together. A tile can sit in more than one group: that is the
cross-referencing. Each code opens that instrument's own page; states
and values are the pipeline's own, dated 2026-06-25.
The grouping is a reading aid, not a measurement. Nothing here is
scored, weighted, or combined. The definitions live in the open
repository like everything else.
state
family
cadence
78 of 78 instruments
The Debt
Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?
C4 is the raw scale. C8 sets it against the economy that carries it, C5 reads what it already claims of every revenue dollar, C14 how much must roll within a year, F10 whether the rolls are clearing, and C15 who has been showing up to fund it. F4, F5, and F6 are the price demanded for holding the duration; F12 the appetite behind the dollar itself.
Net interest / federal receipts (the ratio's spine)17.64
how much of every revenue dollar the debt already claims: higher than ~97% of its last 30 years. Trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
C1 is the level, C11 the slack the headline hides, F9 the fastest tell, F14 the harder-to-leave companion (continued claims), C16 how long the jobless stay jobless, C9 whether the realized recession convention has tripped. C10 reads confidence as action: who dares to quit. D3 asks who is in the game at all, D5 how many industries the growth comes from, C27 who carries the stress, S20 the headline raise before inflation, and S2 whether that paycheck beats prices (S21 the less mix-distorted production-worker cut). The composition cluster (C17–C23) reads what the headline rate hides. See The Freeze.
C2 is the headline, C39 the freshest month-over-month print (the base-effects input), C3 the Fed’s preferred core cut and C40 its headline companion: the 2% target measure. F8 reads whether expectations stay anchored five years out. S1 is the crude old sum of prices and joblessness, kept as the credentialed cousin. What is DRIVING the headline lives in its own constellation.
The decomposition behind C2. C35 is energy (the fastest, most volatile component), C36 shelter (the largest and stickiest), C37 core goods (the tariff and supply-chain channel), C38 core services (the stickiest, last-mile component, where inflation has moved past the supply shock). C41 is WTI crude, the supply-shock INPUT behind energy CPI: shown as context, scored by no one.
How does it feel out there, and does the feeling match?
C6 is the felt mood, S1 the arithmetic cousin, C10 confidence expressed as action, D6 whether the mood shows up as actual big-ticket spending. Sentiment leads, durable demand confirms or denies the follow-through. The Sentiment Gap coefficient on the Cost of Existence page reads the distance between the mood and the fundamentals that usually produce it.
M1 is the altitude, M2 the speculative appetite, M5 the leverage propping the climb. F1 and F13 are what credit charges for risk, F2 how nervously it all reprices, F7 the curve’s standing verdict, F11 how loose the conditions feeding it, F15 how violently the bond market itself is repricing. The pop detectors are the fast tells; these measure available gravity. No predictions.
Where does the wealth sit, and who keeps the output?
Two cuts of one question. The wealth cut: S6 and S7 are the legs of the K, S9 the middle 40%, S10 the professional band, S11 and S12 the generational ledger, S8 the long official income record. The functional cut: S13 is labor’s slice of what corporations produce, S14 profits’ slice of the economy: a pair, read together. S15 is the asset-side counterweight: accumulated net worth against a year’s disposable income.
S4 is debt service against income (S3 its discontinued wider cousin, kept honestly stale), C12 where stress breaks first, S20 the nominal raise and S2 whether it keeps up with prices (S21 the production-worker cut), D4 whether shelter is being built at all. The full basket arithmetic lives on the Cost of Existence page.
D1 is businesses being born, D2 the productivity under real wages, D3 participation, D4 shovels in the ground, D5 the breadth of the hiring engine, D6 whether households are still making big-ticket purchases. A board that must be able to read green needs tiles where green is a reading, not an absence. These are them.
The headline rate hides this. C17 is the white-collar share of payrolls, C18 the temp-help leading tell. C19 (hires) and C20 (layoffs) complete the JOLTS churn triplet with quits (C10): low hires beside low layoffs is a frozen market, not a healthy one. C21 is the vacancy-to-unemployment tightness gauge, C22 the share stuck jobless past 27 weeks, C23 the new entrants who can’t get a first foothold.
Is the banking and credit system carrying its load?
Where stress breaks first now. F17 watches the deposit base for flight, C26 whether banks are pulling back lending, C24 households falling behind on cards, C25 the slow commercial-real-estate risk, C12 mortgages. Funding-market plumbing (F19) and regional-bank strength (F18) are declared on Methodology, awaiting a feed.
How tight is money, and how fast is credit growing?
C30 is the real policy rate: the stance, neither tight nor loose called a verdict. C31 is money growth, C32 bank-credit growth, F16 the curve the Fed’s own recession research prefers. The r* gap (C33) is declared on Methodology, awaiting an automated parse.
How large is the state, and how self-supplied is the economy?
Context, not strain. C28 is the size of the federal government against the economy that funds it; C29 the volume of domestic oil & gas extraction. Shown plainly, scored by no one.