CALMROBUSTabsolute thresholds · z 0.36 (context)DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: 11.6 against fixed thresholds (15/22). higher than ~84% of its last decade.
The full history
1967
high 22.30 · low 4.00 · now 11.60 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
how long the jobless stay jobless
Where it sits
11.6 against fixed thresholds (15/22). higher than ~84% of its last decade: at the 84th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
0.36 (strain side: up). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
Scored against absolute thresholds: <15 calm, 15-22 watch, >22 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
10.20
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
9.60
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
8.70
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
6.00
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work: Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?