C2 · PRICES

CPI inflation, year over year

4.27

EXTREME ROBUST absolute thresholds · z 0.49 (context) DRS 87 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: 4.27 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last decade.

The full history

1948 high 14.59 · low -2.87 · now 4.27 · 12 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: prices
Where it sits: 4.27 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last decade: at the 79th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.49 (strain side: both). 118 observations in the window.
State rule: Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 87: Reliability adjusted (small reduction). The producing agency (BLS) has operated without a Senate-confirmed commissioner since August 2025, when the prior commissioner was removed following routine data revisions, and has curtailed CPI and PPI collection in some areas, citing resources. An independent Department of Labor Inspector General review is underway. No data manipulation has been demonstrated, and the agency continues to publish unfavorable readings. This adjustment reflects elevated uncertainty and reduced sampling precision, not evidence of false data, and it lifts when leadership is confirmed and collection is restored. Sources: DOL OIG audit announcement (Sept 2025); BLS CPI collection-reduction notices (2025). Computed: 100 × (CPIAUCSL(t) / CPIAUCSL(t−12m) − 1). BLS-produced input.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.