This tile is stale: the value shown is the last
one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
2000
high 8.60 · low 0.90 · now 1.10 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the low-fire half of the freeze
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Rising involuntary separations are the direct shedding tell; low layoffs beside low hires is the freeze. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.50
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
1.20
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
1.20
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
8.60
▲ EXTREME
Questions it helps answer
The Freeze: What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?