C3 · FED'S PREFERRED GAUGE

Core PCE inflation, year over year

3.41

WATCH ROBUST absolute thresholds · z 0.48 (context) DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: 3.41 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~74% of its last decade.

The full history

1960 high 10.14 · low 0.63 · now 3.41 · 9 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: Fed's preferred gauge
Where it sits: 3.41 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~74% of its last decade: at the 74th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.48 (strain side: both). 119 observations in the window.
State rule: Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (PCEPILFE(t) / PCEPILFE(t−12m) − 1).

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.