C35 · ENERGY PRICES

CPI energy inflation, year over year

22.10

EXTREME ROBUST absolute thresholds · z 1.66 (context) DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: 22.1 against fixed thresholds (8/20). higher than ~93% of its full record.

The full history

1958 high 47.21 · low -27.80 · now 22.10 · 10 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: energy prices
Where it sits: 22.1 against fixed thresholds (8/20). higher than ~93% of its full record: at the 93th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window: 1.66 (strain side: up). 820 observations in the window.
State rule: Scored against absolute thresholds: <8 calm, 8-20 watch, >20 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CPIENGSL(t) / CPIENGSL(t−12m) − 1), the same energy index already on The Wedge (W6). The fastest-moving CPI component and the primary transmission channel for oil shocks; each print raises one question: does the move stay contained, or bleed into core (R10)? Volatile: single-month prints are noisy, so the signal lives in the 3-month trend, not any one reading. Scored against the FULL record (1957+), NOT a decade window, because energy price cycles are longer than a decade. Historical anchors: Gulf War I +17.7% (1991-01), financial crisis +24.7% (2008-06), COVID recovery +24.5% (2021-06). BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.