WATCHROBUSTabsolute thresholds · z 0.35 (context)DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: 3.62 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last 30 years.
The full history
1954
high 19.97 · low -0.61 · now 3.62 · 11 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
shelter prices
Where it sits
3.62 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last 30 years: at the 79th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window
0.35 (strain side: up). 357 observations in the window.
State rule
Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CUSR0000SAH1(t) / CUSR0000SAH1(t−12m) − 1). The largest single CPI component (~33% weight) and structurally sticky (energy spikes fade, shelter spikes don't), so it is the leading read on how long an inflation episode persists. Two disclosures travel with the line: (1) BLS shelter CPI uses owners' equivalent rent (OER), a survey-based imputation of a CONSTRUCT, not transaction prices, and it lags market rents (Zillow, Apartment List) by 12–18 months: the addendum labels this PLAUSIBLE for that reason, a caveat the house carries here rather than in the provenance; (2) scored against 30 years to span the pre-2021 regime. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.