C37 · CORE GOODS PRICES

CPI core goods inflation, year over year

1.03

CALM ROBUST absolute thresholds · z 0.20 (context) DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: 1.03 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~78% of its last 30 years.

The full history

1958 high 12.50 · low -2.52 · now 1.03 · 10 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: core goods prices
Where it sits: 1.03 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~78% of its last 30 years: at the 78th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: 0.20 (strain side: up). 357 observations in the window.
State rule: Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CUSR0000SACL1E(t) / CUSR0000SACL1E(t−12m) − 1), commodities less food and energy, i.e. goods prices stripped of the two volatile lines. The channel through which tariffs and supply-chain disruption show up; the clearest tariff-transmission signal in monthly CPI data. This series was NEGATIVE for most of 2012–2020 (the goods-deflation era), so decade-relative scoring would produce misleading z-scores; scored against 30 years, which captures the prior regime. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.