WATCHROBUSTabsolute thresholds · z 0.43 (context)DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: 3.56 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last 30 years.
The full history
1968
high 17.19 · low 0.81 · now 3.56 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
core services prices
Where it sits
3.56 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~79% of its last 30 years: at the 79th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window
0.43 (strain side: up). 357 observations in the window.
State rule
Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CUSR0000SASLE(t) / CUSR0000SASLE(t−12m) − 1), services less energy, the stickiest CPI component: it reflects labor costs and domestic demand rather than import prices or commodity shocks. When core services rise, inflation has moved beyond the supply shock: the Fed's 'last mile' problem. Disclosure: shelter is technically a service and is the dominant driver of this series; a core-services-ex-shelter companion would be CONTESTED (derived, not a native FRED series) and is not shown. Scored against 30 years. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.