CPI inflation, month over month (seasonally adjusted)
0.47
EXTREMEROBUSTabsolute thresholds · z 0.89 (context)DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: 0.47 against fixed thresholds (0.25/0.35). higher than ~87% of its last 30 years.
The full history
1947
high 1.81 · low -0.86 · now 0.47 · 12 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the freshest inflation print
Where it sits
0.47 against fixed thresholds (0.25/0.35). higher than ~87% of its last 30 years: at the 87th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window
0.89 (strain side: up). 357 observations in the window.
State rule
Scored against absolute thresholds: <0.25 calm, 0.25-0.35 watch, >0.35 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CPIAUCSL(t) / CPIAUCSL(t−1m) − 1), the month-over-month change, the freshest inflation signal and the input to base-effects arithmetic: when monthly prints persistently exceed ~0.2%, the year-over-year rate rises even if the underlying trend is unchanged. This tile makes base effects visible rather than leaving them implicit in the YoY headline (C2). Noisier than YoY: read with the 3-month trend, not a single print; MoM × 12 approximates the annualized rate markets and commentary quote. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.