PCE inflation, headline, year over year (Fed's target measure)
4.07
EXTREMEROBUSTabsolute thresholds · z 0.33 (context)DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: 4.07 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~73% of its full record.
The full history
1960
high 11.60 · low -1.47 · now 4.07 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the Fed's official target gauge
Where it sits
4.07 against fixed thresholds (2.5/4). higher than ~73% of its full record: at the 73th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
0.33 (strain side: both). 797 observations in the window.
State rule
Scored against absolute thresholds: <2.5 calm, 2.5-4 watch, >4 extreme. Because the reference window is poisoned by the 2020-23 spikes, the z-score is shown for context but does not gate the state.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (PCEPI(t) / PCEPI(t−12m) − 1). The Federal Reserve's official target measure: the 2% target applies to HEADLINE PCE; when PCE runs persistently above 2% the Fed is off-mandate. Differs from CPI (C2) in weights (less shelter, more healthcare), scope (PCE includes third-party purchases like employer health insurance) and formula (chain-weight vs CPI's Laspeyres), and typically runs ~0.3–0.5pp BELOW CPI, the methodological wedge that R11 scores. Strain is declared BOTH tails to match the symmetric engine and C2/C3 (the addendum frames it one-sided as 'above target'): persistent overshoot and deflation are both strain, and the 2% line is additive display context, not the state gate. Scored against the full record (1960+). The core PCE sibling is C3. BEA-produced.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.