D1 · NEW BUSINESSES BEING BORN: THE ONES LIKELY TO HIRE

High-propensity business applications

146,555

CALM ROBUST z 0.71 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: higher than ~71% of its last decade.

The full history

2004 high 184,824 · low 79,384 · now 146,555 · 2 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: new businesses being born: the ones likely to hire
Where it sits: higher than ~71% of its last decade: at the 71th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.71 (strain side: down). 119 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Census Business Formation Statistics, monthly since 2004. High-propensity = applications with characteristics of future employer businesses.

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.