D3 · HOW MUCH OF THE WORKING-AGE COUNTRY IS IN THE GAME
Prime-age labor force participation (25-54)
83.90
CALMROBUSTz 1.57DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: higher than ~96% of its last decade.
The full history
1948
high 84.60 · low 64.20 · now 83.90 · 12 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
how much of the working-age country is in the game
Where it sits
higher than ~96% of its last decade: at the 96th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
1.57 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Decade-relative by design: the full-history baseline is dominated by the secular entry of women into the workforce (1948-1990s), which would make any modern reading look high. BLS-produced.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
83.10
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
82.30
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
82.50
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
82.40
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work: Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?