D6 · BIG-TICKET CONSUMER DEMAND

Discretionary demand (real durable-goods consumption)

0.84

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01

This tile is stale: the value shown is the last one the source published, never a fabricated current number.

The full history

1960 high 48.75 · low -12.97 · now 0.84 · 9 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: big-ticket consumer demand
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Computed: 3-month moving average of the year-over-year change in real PCE durable goods (DDURRA3M086SBEA, BEA chain-type quantity index, 2017=100), monthly since 1959: the smoothing tames a famously volatile (auto-driven) series without shifting the turn more than a month. The behavioral complement to consumer sentiment (C6): sentiment leads, big-ticket spending confirms or denies the follow-through. Real durable demand should grow modestly with income (S20) and household formation; a sharp YoY decline means consumers are DEFERRING major purchases: the cold tail is the strain side. The hot tail is noted, not flagged as structural stress. Three disclosures travel with the line: (1) autos are ~40% of durable-goods PCE and dominate the aggregate; weakness in appliances, furniture, or electronics can be invisible here; (2) this uses the REAL chain-type quantity index directly, so no deflator is chosen and 'nominal vs real' cannot mislead: it moves only when BEA revises the quantity index; (3) durable-goods ORDERS (DGORDER) lead consumption by 1–3 months but measure manufacturers' new orders (aircraft & capital goods included), a different concept, deliberately NOT used here as a stand-in for consumption. Scored against its trailing decade. BEA-produced.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.