← All instruments: the full set 1982
high 3.91 · low -1.88 · now 0.63 · 5 recessions shaded 2026
F16 · THE CURVE THE FED'S RECESSION RESEARCH PREFERS
Term spread, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury
0.63
STALE ROBUST DRS 95 daily as of 2026-06-18
This tile is stale: the value shown is the last one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- the curve the Fed's recession research prefers
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95: Inversion (negative) is the strain side. Complements the 2s10s (F7); the 10y–3m is the spread NY Fed recession models use.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 2.45 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 0.29 | ▲ EXTREME |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | -0.52 | ▲ EXTREME |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 0.74 | ◆ WATCH |
Questions it helps answer
- The Debt : Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?
- Money & Policy : How tight is money, and how fast is credit growing?