← All instruments: the full set 1967
high 6,137,000 · low 171,000 · now 215,000 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
F9 · FASTEST LABOR TELL
Initial unemployment insurance claims
215,000
CALM ROBUST z -0.27 DRS 95 weekly as of 2026-06-20
Where it sits: lower than ~74% of its last decade.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- fastest labor tell
- Where it sits
- lower than ~74% of its last decade: at the 26th percentile of its last decade.
- z vs. its window
- -0.27 (strain side: up). 521 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 449,000 | ▲ EXTREME |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 228,000 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 213,000 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 2,914,000 | ▲ EXTREME |
Questions it helps answer
- Work : Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?