R4 · ICSA × DGS10

Growth vs. yields

Yields should track growth. When yields rise as growth weakens, the debt is being repriced on something other than the economy.

BEHAVING z = -1.29 ROBUST as of 2026-06-20

within its normal range (above ~10% of its history)

The dysfunction statistic, full history

Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction: the relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.

ICSA

1967 high 6,137,000 · low 171,000 · now 215,000 · 8 recessions shaded 2026

DGS10

1962 high 15.06 · low 0.55 · now 4.50 · 8 recessions shaded 2026

Correlation today (r): -0.3066
z vs. its own history: -1.29 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation (effective N ≈ 118 independent windows, from 3,074 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed: z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 4 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
Confidence: ROBUST: Initial claims serve as the weekly growth proxy; disclosed on Methodology.