The dollar and Treasury auction demand are both confidence gauges. When the dollar falls AND auctions are bid weakly, the world is stepping back from US assets at once, the loss-of-confidence signature.
BEHAVING z = 0.35 PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-06-24
toward the strained side: above ~65% of its history
The dysfunction statistic, full history
Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction: the
relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.
The two series it watches
DTWEXBGS
2006
high 130.04 · low 85.60 · now 120.40 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
AUCTION_BTC
1994
high 4.64 · low 1.33 · now 2.67 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is scored
Correlation today (r)
0.1164
z vs. its own history
0.35 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation (effective N ≈ 40.7 independent windows, from 1,625 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE: Bid-to-cover is sparse (auction-dated) and the correlation cannot separate both-weak from both-strong, disclosed; the strain reading is corroborated by the partner level tiles (the dollar, F12; auction demand, F10), not taken alone.