← All instruments — the full set 1991
high 11.48 · low 1.41 · now 1.89 · 4 recessions shaded 2026
C12 · HOUSEHOLD STRESS WHERE IT BREAKS FIRST
Single-family mortgage delinquency rate
1.89
CALM ROBUST z -0.76 DRS 95 quarterly as of 2026-01-01
Where it sits: lower than ~64% of its last decade.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- household stress where it breaks first
- Where it sits
- lower than ~64% of its last decade — at the 36th percentile of its last decade.
- z vs. its window
- -0.76 (strain side: up). 39 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95 — Commercial-bank book, quarterly since 1991. The transmission tile between the affordability story (section 02) and the credit system.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 5.27 | ▲ EXTREME |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 2.83 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 2.44 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 2.35 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Household — Can households carry their own ledger?
- The Plumbing — Is the banking and credit system carrying its load?