X

The Instruments

The board reads down; this reads sideways

68 instruments, grouped by the questions they answer together. A tile can sit in more than one group — that is the cross-referencing. Each code opens that instrument's own page; states and values are the pipeline's own, dated 2026-06-08.

The grouping is a reading aid, not a measurement — nothing here is scored, weighted, or combined. The definitions live in the open repository like everything else.

state
family
cadence

68 of 68 instruments

The Debt

Can the debt be carried — and who is carrying it?

C4 is the raw scale. C8 sets it against the economy that carries it, C5 reads what it already claims of every revenue dollar, C14 how much must roll within a year, F10 whether the rolls are clearing, and C15 who has been showing up to fund it. F4, F5, and F6 are the price demanded for holding the duration; F12 the appetite behind the dollar itself.

C4 context
Federal debt held by the public $31.61T
fiscal scale
daily as of 2026-06-04 TREASURY
C8 watch
Federal debt to GDP 122.57
the debt against the economy that carries it— higher than ~96% of its last 30 years — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z 1.47 FRED
C5 watch
Net interest / federal receipts (the ratio's spine) 17.19
how much of every revenue dollar the debt already claims— higher than ~87% of its last 30 years
monthly as of 2026-04-30 z 1.71 TREASURY
C14 calm
Refinancing wall (marketable debt maturing within one year) 33.03
rollover exposure— near the middle of its last 30 years
monthly as of 2026-05-31 z 0.12 TREASURY
F10 calm
Treasury auction demand (coupon bid-to-cover) 2.52
demand for the debt— near the middle of its last decade
weekly as of 2026-05-28 z -0.13 TREASURY
C15 watch
Foreign share of federal debt held by the public 30.52
who has been funding the debt — and whether they still are— lower than ~84% of its last 30 years
quarterly as of 2025-07-01 z -1.20 DERIVED
F4 calm
10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield 4.47
benchmark rate— lower than ~61% of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-04 z -0.46 FRED
F5 calm
30-year Treasury constant-maturity yield 4.97
long-end / credibility— near the middle of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-04 z -0.40 FRED
F6 calm
10-year term premium (Adrian–Crump–Moench) 0.67
compensation to hold duration— lower than ~67% of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-05 z -0.57 NYFED
F12 watch
Trade-weighted dollar (nominal broad index) 118.88
foreign appetite for US assets— higher than ~80% of its full record
daily as of 2026-05-29 z 1.02 FRED
F16 calm
Term spread, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury 0.77
the curve the Fed's recession research prefers— near the middle of its last decade
daily as of 2026-06-05 z 0.37 FRED

Work

Is the labor market holding — and how broadly?

C1 is the level, C11 the slack the headline hides, F9 the fastest tell, F14 the harder-to-leave companion (continued claims), C16 how long the jobless stay jobless, C9 whether the realized recession convention has tripped. C10 reads confidence as action — who dares to quit. D3 asks who is in the game at all, D5 how many industries the growth comes from, C27 who carries the stress, and S2 whether the paycheck beats prices. The composition cluster (C17–C23) reads what the headline rate hides — see The Freeze.

C1 calm
Unemployment rate 4.30
labor level— higher than ~61% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.15 FRED
C11 calm
U-6 underemployment rate 8.10
the slack the headline rate hides— higher than ~62% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.14 FRED
F9 calm
Initial unemployment insurance claims 225,000
fastest labor tell— near the middle of its last decade
weekly as of 2026-05-30 z -0.25 FRED
F14 calm
Continued unemployment claims (insured unemployment) 1,777,000
trouble finding new work— lower than ~67% of its last decade
weekly as of 2026-05-23 z -0.31 FRED
C16 calm
Median duration of unemployment 11.60
how long the jobless stay jobless— higher than ~84% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z 0.36 FRED
C9 calm
Sahm Rule recession indicator 0.10
is a recession underway, by the realized convention— near the middle of its full record
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.33 FRED
C10 watch
Quits rate (JOLTS) 1.90
worker confidence — who dares to quit— lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -1.32 FRED
D3 calm
Prime-age labor force participation (25-54) 83.90
how much of the working-age country is in the game— higher than ~96% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z 1.57 FRED
D5 calm
Job-growth breadth (1-month diffusion index, private industries) 54.40
how many industries the engine is actually firing on— lower than ~68% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.24 BLS
C27 calm
Black–white unemployment ratio 1.74
distribution of labor-market stress— lower than ~68% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.46 DERIVED
S2 calm
Real wage growth, year over year (the flow) -0.38
wages vs prices— lower than ~81% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -0.55 DERIVED

Prices

Are prices behaving — and believed?

C2 is the headline, C3 the Fed’s preferred cut, F8 whether expectations stay anchored five years out. S1 is the crude old sum of prices and joblessness, kept as the credentialed cousin.

C2 calm
CPI inflation, year over year 3.95
prices— higher than ~77% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.34 DERIVED
C3 calm
Core PCE inflation, year over year 3.29
Fed's preferred gauge— higher than ~73% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.39 DERIVED
F8 calm
5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate 2.24
expectations anchoring— near the middle of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-05 z -0.03 FRED
S1 calm
Misery Index (unemployment + CPI inflation) 8.25
the crude feeling gauge— higher than ~72% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.20 DERIVED

The Mood

How does it feel out there — and does the feeling match?

C6 is the felt mood, S1 the arithmetic cousin, C10 confidence expressed as action. The Sentiment Gap coefficient on the Cost of Existence page reads the distance between the mood and the fundamentals that usually produce it.

C6 extreme
University of Michigan consumer sentiment 49.80
felt mood— lower than ~100% of its full record — near the bottom of its record
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -2.57 FRED
S1 calm
Misery Index (unemployment + CPI inflation) 8.25
the crude feeling gauge— higher than ~72% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.20 DERIVED
C10 watch
Quits rate (JOLTS) 1.90
worker confidence — who dares to quit— lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -1.32 FRED

The Ledge

How high is the market — and what is under it?

M1 is the altitude, M2 the speculative appetite, M5 the leverage propping the climb. F1 and F13 are what credit charges for risk, F2 how nervously it all reprices, F7 the curve’s standing verdict, F11 how loose the conditions feeding it, F15 how violently the bond market itself is repricing. The pop detectors are the fast tells; these measure available gravity. No predictions.

M1 extreme
Corporate equities to GDP (the Buffett indicator) 232.74
valuation altitude— higher than ~99% of its last 30 years — near the top of its record
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z 2.67 DERIVED
M2 calm
Bitcoin (Coinbase spot) 63,217
speculative appetite— higher than ~80% of its last decade
daily as of 2026-06-07 z 0.90 FRED
M5 calm
NFCI leverage subindex 0.42
the build-up of system leverage froth misses— higher than ~78% of its full record
weekly as of 2026-05-29 z 0.42 FRED
F1 calm
High-yield credit spread (ICE BofA US High Yield OAS) 2.76
financial stress— lower than ~88% of its last decade
daily as of 2026-06-05 z -1.01 FRED
F13 calm
Baa corporate spread over 10-year Treasury 1.54
investment-grade credit stress— lower than ~93% of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-04 z -1.06 FRED
F2 calm
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 21.51
repricing uncertainty— higher than ~70% of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-05 z 0.27 FRED
F7 calm
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (2s10s) 0.38
curve relationship— near the middle of its last decade
daily as of 2026-06-05 z 0.03 FRED
F11 calm
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index -0.49
how tight or loose financial conditions are— lower than ~61% of its full record
weekly as of 2026-05-29 z -0.49 FRED
F15 calm
Treasury-market realized volatility (10y yield, 20-day) 0.74
rate volatility— near the middle of its full record
daily as of 2026-06-04 z -0.24 DERIVED

Who Gets What

Where does the wealth sit — and who keeps the output?

Two cuts of one question. The wealth cut: S6 and S7 are the legs of the K, S9 the middle 40%, S10 the professional band, S11 and S12 the generational ledger, S8 the long official income record. The functional cut: S13 is labor’s slice of what corporations produce, S14 profits’ slice of the economy — a pair, read together. S15 is the asset-side counterweight: accumulated net worth against a year’s disposable income.

S6 calm
Share of net worth held by the bottom 50% of households 2.50
the lower leg of the K— higher than ~61% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z 0.86 FRED
S7 extreme
Share of net worth held by the top 1% of households 31.90
the upper leg of the K— higher than ~97% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z 2.54 FRED
S9 calm
Share of net worth held by the middle 40% (50th–90th) 29.20
the middle class's slice— near the middle of its last decade
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z -0.29 FRED
S10 context
Share of net worth held by the 90th–99th percentiles 36.40
the professional band
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 FRED
S11 context
Share of net worth held by the Baby Boomer generation 51.20
the generational ledger, upper entry
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 FEDDFA
S12 context
Share of net worth held by the Millennial generation 10.70
the generational ledger, lower entry
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 FEDDFA
S8 context
Income Gini ratio, families (Census) 0.46
income concentration, the long official record
annual as of 2024-01-01 FRED
S13 watch
Labor's share of corporate output (compensation / value added) 54.49
workers' slice of what corporations produce— lower than ~100% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z -1.65 DERIVED
S14 watch
Corporate profits after tax / GDP 11.28
profits' slice of the economy— higher than ~92% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z 1.42 DERIVED
S15 context
Household net worth, multiple of disposable income 7.97
the asset-side counterweight to the cost basket
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 DERIVED

The Household

Can households carry their own ledger?

S4 is debt service against income (S3 its discontinued wider cousin, kept honestly stale), C12 where stress breaks first, S2 whether wages keep up, D4 whether shelter is being built at all. The full basket arithmetic lives on the Cost of Existence page.

S4 calm
Household debt service ratio 11.32
debt payments / income— near the middle of its last decade
quarterly as of 2025-10-01 z 0.41 FRED
S3 stale
Financial Obligations Ratio (discontinued 2023-Q3) 14.20
required payments / income
quarterly as of 2023-07-01 FRED
C12 calm
Single-family mortgage delinquency rate 1.89
household stress where it breaks first— lower than ~64% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z -0.76 FRED
S2 calm
Real wage growth, year over year (the flow) -0.38
wages vs prices— lower than ~81% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -0.55 DERIVED
D4 calm
Housing starts 1,465
shovels in the ground— higher than ~70% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.55 FRED

The Engine Room

Is anything being built?

D1 is businesses being born, D2 the productivity under real wages, D3 participation, D4 shovels in the ground, D5 the breadth of the hiring engine. A board that must be able to read green needs tiles where green is a reading, not an absence — these are them.

D1 calm
High-propensity business applications 146,782
new businesses being born — the ones likely to hire— higher than ~75% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.72 FRED
D2 calm
Labor productivity growth, year over year 2.80
the engine under real wages— higher than ~67% of its full record
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z 0.35 DERIVED
D3 calm
Prime-age labor force participation (25-54) 83.90
how much of the working-age country is in the game— higher than ~96% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z 1.57 FRED
D4 calm
Housing starts 1,465
shovels in the ground— higher than ~70% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z 0.55 FRED
D5 calm
Job-growth breadth (1-month diffusion index, private industries) 54.40
how many industries the engine is actually firing on— lower than ~68% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.24 BLS

The Freeze

What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?

The headline rate hides this. C17 is the white-collar share of payrolls, C18 the temp-help leading tell. C19 (hires) and C20 (layoffs) complete the JOLTS churn triplet with quits (C10): low hires beside low layoffs is a frozen market, not a healthy one. C21 is the vacancy-to-unemployment tightness gauge, C22 the share stuck jobless past 27 weeks, C23 the new entrants who can’t get a first foothold.

C17 calm
White-collar payroll share (professional & business services) 16.57
white-collar composition of employment— lower than ~89% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -0.96 DERIVED
C18 watch
Temp-help share of private payrolls 1.84
the leading hiring tell— lower than ~92% of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z -1.68 DERIVED
C19 watch
Hires rate (JOLTS) 3.20
the low-hire half of the freeze— lower than ~93% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -1.23 FRED
C20 calm
Layoffs & discharges rate (JOLTS) 1.10
the low-fire half of the freeze— lower than ~89% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -0.46 FRED
C10 watch
Quits rate (JOLTS) 1.90
worker confidence — who dares to quit— lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -1.32 FRED
C21 calm
Vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (V/U) 1.03
Beveridge-curve tightness— near the middle of its last decade
monthly as of 2026-04-01 z -0.29 DERIVED
C22 watch
Long-term unemployed share (27+ weeks) 27.21
the 'applying for a year' signal— higher than ~90% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z 1.17 DERIVED
C23 calm
New-entrant share of the unemployed 11.19
the first-foothold collapse— higher than ~65% of its full record
monthly as of 2026-05-01 z 0.37 DERIVED

The Plumbing

Is the banking and credit system carrying its load?

Where stress breaks first now. F17 watches the deposit base for flight, C26 whether banks are pulling back lending, C24 households falling behind on cards, C25 the slow commercial-real-estate risk, C12 mortgages. Funding-market plumbing (F19) and regional-bank strength (F18) are declared on Methodology, awaiting a feed.

F17 calm
Deposits, all commercial banks 19,333
deposit base— higher than ~100% of its last decade — near the top of its record
weekly as of 2026-05-27 z 1.43 FRED
C26 calm
Banks tightening C&I lending standards (SLOOS, net %) 8.10
credit availability— higher than ~62% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-04-01 z -0.03 FRED
C24 calm
Credit-card delinquency rate, all commercial banks 2.92
household credit stress— higher than ~72% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z 0.89 FRED
C25 watch
Commercial real-estate loan delinquency rate, banks 1.56
slow systemic CRE risk— higher than ~85% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z 1.80 FRED
C12 calm
Single-family mortgage delinquency rate 1.89
household stress where it breaks first— lower than ~64% of its last decade
quarterly as of 2026-01-01 z -0.76 FRED

Money & Policy

How tight is money, and how fast is credit growing?

C30 is the real policy rate — the stance, neither tight nor loose called a verdict. C31 is money growth, C32 bank-credit growth, F16 the curve the Fed’s own recession research prefers. The r* gap (C33) is declared on Methodology, awaiting an automated parse.

C30 context
Real policy rate (fed funds − core PCE YoY) 0.35
monetary-policy stance
monthly as of 2026-04-01 DERIVED
C31 context
M2 money supply, year-over-year 4.72
money growth
monthly as of 2026-04-01 DERIVED
C32 context
Bank credit, year-over-year 6.40
credit growth
monthly as of 2026-05-01 DERIVED
F16 calm
Term spread, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury 0.77
the curve the Fed's recession research prefers— near the middle of its last decade
daily as of 2026-06-05 z 0.37 FRED

Scale & Energy

How large is the state, and how self-supplied is the economy?

Context, not strain. C28 is the size of the federal government against the economy that funds it; C29 the volume of domestic oil & gas extraction. Shown plainly, scored by no one.

C28 context
Federal net outlays as a percent of GDP 22.79
fiscal scale
annual as of 2025-01-01 FRED
C29 context
Oil & gas extraction (industrial-production index) 150.03
energy independence
monthly as of 2026-04-01 FRED