DATED 2026-06-06 · RECOMPUTED ON EVERY DATA REFRESH As of 6 June 2026, the bulk of the board reads calm (two of four relationships behaving; 28 of 34 levels). What isn't holding: stocks vs. bonds (decoupled), then jobs vs. market reaction (strained) — and on the levels, university of michigan consumer sentiment and share of net worth held by the top 1% of households.
Not a forecast. Not a doom score. A present-tense reading of whether
the relationships that stabilize the system are still doing their job —
a census of states, never a single number.
01
Relationship Integrity
Are the offsets holding?
R1 · PAYEMS × SP500
Jobs vs. market reaction
Good news should lift equities. When strong payrolls sell stocks off, the market is trading the Fed, not the economy.
STRAINEDz = 1.29
toward the strained side — above ~84% of its history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.1928
z vs. its own history
1.29 (94 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 2 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE — Surprise is proxied against the series' own trend (revised data, not real-time consensus); disclosed on Methodology.
As of
2026-05-08
R2 · SP500 × DGS10
Stocks vs. bonds
Treasuries should hedge equities (negative correlation). When both sell off together, the classic portfolio stabilizer is failing.
DECOUPLEDz = 2.80
further toward dysfunction than ~100% of its own history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.7021
z vs. its own history
2.8 (2,436 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 10 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Plain rolling correlation of daily moves; the computation is mechanical.
As of
2026-06-04
R3 · CPI_YOY × T5YIFR
Inflation vs. expectations
Long-run expectations should stay near 2% no matter what realized CPI does. When they start moving WITH CPI, the anchor is dragging.
BEHAVINGz = 0.73
toward the strained side — above ~73% of its history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.2592
z vs. its own history
0.73 (256 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Rolling 24-month correlation of monthly changes in the 5y5y breakeven with changes in published CPI — co-movement measured directly. Reconstructed 2026-06-06; see the Methodology changelog.
As of
2026-05-01
R4 · ICSA × DGS10
Growth vs. yields
Yields should track growth. When yields rise as growth weakens, the debt is being repriced on something other than the economy.
BEHAVINGz = -1.26
within its normal range (above ~10% of its history)
Show the math
Statistic today
-0.2945
z vs. its own history
-1.26 (3,071 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 4 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Initial claims serve as the weekly growth proxy; disclosed on Methodology.
As of
2026-05-30
02
The Cost of Existence
What life costs, and how it diverges from how it feels
THE COST-TO-EXIST RATIO (CLAIMED SHARE) · FLAGSHIPCOMPONENTS ROBUST · ASSEMBLY PLAUSIBLE
The share of each income already spoken for before a single free
choice — the same arithmetic at three incomes, recomputed live as you
change the assumptions below. The lower household carries the larger
share because health premiums, food, fuel, and the shelter floor are
flat dollars, and flat dollars are regressive. Select a bracket to see
its breakdown.
Breakdown — median household, $83,730: $56,811
claimed (67.9%)
Taxes
$12,093
ROBUST
Debt service
$9,481
PLAUSIBLE
Shelter
$11,700
ROBUST
Food (thrifty, 2+0)
$7,484
ROBUST
Fuel (live, $4.305/gal)
$2,932
PLAUSIBLE
Health premiums
$6,850
ROBUST
Retirement gap
$6,271
CONTESTED
Out-of-pocket health
—
DISABLED — NO VERIFIED MEDIAN
Show the math
Formula
ClaimedShare = (Taxes + Obligations + Shelter + Food + Fuel + Health + RetirementGap) / Income
Spine
Built on the Fed's own framework: the Debt Service Ratio
(11.323096% of disposable income,
as of 2025-10-01) carries debt service;
shelter enters separately at HUD Fair Market Rent so nothing
double-counts. The Fed's broader Financial Obligations Ratio
read 14.2% when it was
discontinued (2023-07-01) — shown as anchor.
Conservative by construction
State/local taxes omitted; tax credits omitted; out-of-pocket
health disabled pending a verified median. Where honesty is
ambiguous, the share reads LOW.
Two wage series, shown separately and never spliced: all-employees AHE begins 2006-03; production-and-nonsupervisory AHE carries the history to 1964. They differ in level and composition.
Cousin on screen
S2, real wage growth (the flow, ROBUST), in the cousins row below.
THE SENTIMENT GAP (THE VIBES GAP) · 5.3PLAUSIBLE / CONTESTED — SPEC PUBLISHED IN FULL
-37.9
Michigan sentiment reads 49.8; unemployment,
inflation, and real wage growth alone predict 87.7.
The difference is how much worse it feels than the fundamentals in the model
say it should — and the model deliberately omits the privatized life taxes
measured above.
Show the math
Specification
OLS: sentiment ~ const + unemployment + cpi_yoy + real_wage_growth, monthly, full available joint sample; Newey-West (HAC, 12 lags) standard errors
Sample
1965-02-01 to 2026-04-01 (631 months)
R²
0.2769 — published, not hidden; a low R² means the fundamentals never explained the mood fully, which is itself the finding
DYNAMISM — THE POSITIVES, AS ACTIVE SIGNALS: NEW BUSINESSES,
PRODUCTIVITY, PARTICIPATION, SHOVELS IN THE GROUND. THESE READ
STRAINED ONLY WHEN THE DYNAMISM DIES.
D1 · NEW BUSINESSES BEING BORN — THE ONES LIKELY TO HIRE
The argument — conditional, and clearly labeled as such
17.2¢
of every federal revenue dollar already goes to interest on the
public debt — the trailing twelve months through 2026-04-30,
straight from the Treasury's
monthly statements. This is the ratio's spine, read in the
present tense. What happens to it if a single shock moves
unemployment, inflation, and rates together is the model's
question, not this board's.
A mathematical warning.
Debt service over available revenue, under any combination of
unemployment, inflation, and rates. The cascade fires only if a
coupling shock overrides the offsetting mechanisms — that
conditionality is the whole point, and it lives on its own site.
Not a forecast. Not a doom score. A present-tense reading of whether the relationships that stabilize the system — jobs and markets, stocks and bonds, inflation and expectations — are still doing their job.
— THE DISCIPLINE
Every number carries its primary source, its timestamp, and a reliability score. Every formula is one click away. On most days, most of this board should read calm — and it is built to say so.
— THE ARGUMENT
The conditional argument — what happens if a single shock moves the coupled variables together — lives at The Crisis Ratio. Data here; interpretation there.
05
Field Notes
Interpretation — dated, signed, never silently edited
THE WIRE — MACHINE-WRITTEN RECORD OF WHAT MOVED. NO JUDGMENT;
A PURE FUNCTION OF CONSECUTIVE BOARD STATES.
2026-06-06The wire opens. 38 readings under watch.
FIELD NOTES — INTERPRETATION. HUMAN, SIGNED, APPEND-ONLY.
— Interpretation, not data
No entries yet. When a relationship visibly moves, a dated note
will explain what happened and which tiles it touched. Corrections
arrive as new entries, never edits.