VOL. 01 / NO. 01 JUNE 2026 IS IT STILL PLUMB?

The Plumbline.

Plumb, level, true.

10/12 stabilizing relationships holding 40/66 indicators calm See the full board →

As of 25 June 2026, the board is mostly quiet: 10 of 12 relationships are behaving and 40 of 66 levels read calm; across 50 scorable levels that is busier than chance alone would predict (chance puts ~7.2 on watch and ~1.2 at extreme).

The Plumbline tracks whether the basic cost of life is still bearable.

For the renter who cannot afford to move. For the patient whose healthcare is not optional. For the family whose heating bill is not a choice.

In markets where consumers have little agency (shelter, healthcare, energy, insurance), prices are not disciplined by competition. Standard aggregates like GDP and unemployment rates don't capture this. The squeeze happens below the headline.

When it becomes unbearable, the numbers will show it here before the headlines do.

Household Stress

Are the non-negotiables still affordable?

Three diagnostic questions, read from the bottom up: captive-demand costs, what is left after the bills, and where the arithmetic has already broken. The instruments are in calibration; their rosters are declared below, never a fabricated reading before they are scored.

Can households afford the non-negotiables?

Captive Demand

Inflation decomposed by whether the consumer can say no. Shelter, healthcare, energy, and insurance are priced without the discipline of optionality; these tiles read how fast that captive cost is rising against what households earn.

Headline CPI reads +4.3% this year , the blended average. Measured from 2019, the essentials households cannot skip have run far higher:

energy +57% · + 23.0% yr

food +35% · + 3.1% yr

shelter +35% · + 3.4% yr

medical +19% · + 2.6% yr

Bars show the cumulative change since 2019; the small figure is this year's. The year-over-year is where a multi-year run-up disappears.

Break down energy: +57% since 2019 , this year +23.0%

Bars show the cumulative change since 2019, the run-up the calm year-over-year hides. The legs running above the leg's own average carry the rust.

fuel oil & other fuels +70% · + 33.2% yr

gasoline +63% · + 40.5% yr

utility gas +57% · + 3.0% yr

electricity +45% · + 5.9% yr

Seasonally adjusted; 2019 calendar-year average as the base.

Break down food: +33% since 2019 , this year +2.7%

Bars show the cumulative change since 2019, the run-up the calm year-over-year hides. The legs running above the leg's own average carry the rust.

nonalcoholic beverages +40% · + 5.8% yr

meats, poultry, fish & eggs +40% · + 1.8% yr

other food at home +33% · + 2.0% yr

cereals & bakery +33% · + 1.9% yr

fruits & vegetables +24% · + 6.0% yr

dairy +23% · -1.0% yr

Eggs alone: +39% since 2019 . Seasonally adjusted; 2019 calendar-year average as the base.

Break down shelter: +35% since 2019 , this year +3.4%

Bars show the cumulative change since 2019, the run-up the calm year-over-year hides. The legs running above the leg's own average carry the rust.

owners' equivalent rent +35% · + 3.3% yr

rent of primary residence +35% · + 2.9% yr

lodging away from home +18% · + 5.0% yr

Seasonally adjusted; 2019 calendar-year average as the base.

Break down medical: +19% since 2019 , this year +2.6%

Bars show the cumulative change since 2019, the run-up the calm year-over-year hides. The legs running above the leg's own average carry the rust.

hospital & related services +36% · + 5.8% yr

professional services +19% · + 4.5% yr

drugs & medical equipment +7% · -1.8% yr

Health insurance (measured indirectly by BLS and highly volatile) is not shown separately. These lines do not fully partition medical care. Seasonally adjusted; 2019 calendar-year average as the base.

HD2 behaving

Elastic / Inelastic Spread

spread = 0.7pp (inelastic − elastic YoY)

DRS 72 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-05-01

HD1 extreme

Captive-Demand Inflation Index

gap = 4.5pp (captive costs − wage growth)

DRS 68 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-05-01

HD3 strained

Insurance Cost Burden

7.8% YoY, the higher of homeowners & auto

homeowners insurance + 7.8% yr

auto insurance -1.5% yr

DRS 88 z – ROBUST as of 2026-05-01

HD4 behaving

Medical Cost Burden

gap = -0.6pp (medical − wage growth)

DRS 70 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-05-01

Is there anything left over?

Household Margin

The operative measure of financial health at street level. What remains after rent, debt service, and the captive costs: the space where saving, resilience, and discretionary life actually happen. When it compresses, households stop saving, then borrow, then break.

HM1 behaving

Household Financial Margin

margin index 104 (2019=100)

real income per capita vs 2019 + 10.8

captive-demand burden -6.2

rent overrun 0.0

margin index 105

DRS 55 z – CONTESTED as of 2026-04-01

HM2 behaving

Rent Burden

burden index 99 (2019=100)

DRS 65 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-01-01

HM4 watch

Consumer Debt Stress

credit +1.8% (2019: +3.8%) · delinquency 2.9% (2019: 2.6%)

DRS 88 z – ROBUST as of 2026-01-01

HM3 strained

Personal Saving Rate

saving rate 2.6% of disposable income

DRS 95 z – ROBUST as of 2026-04-01

HM5 watch

Food Insecurity Proxy

SNAP enrollment 12.3% of population

Enrollment reflects eligibility POLICY as well as need. Pandemic expansions raised it, and H.R.1's 2025 cuts are lowering it independent of food need, so a falling rate here is not necessarily less hardship. Annual FY data, sourced from USDA FNS.

DRS 68 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2024-04-01

Where is it breaking?

Breaking Points

Not stress: fracture. Where the cost of a non-discretionary necessity exceeds what any reasonable budget can absorb. These tiles carry lower reliability scores by design: the signal is real, the measurement is imperfect in real time, and both are disclosed.

HB1 watch

Housing Cost Fracture

24.3% of renters pay 50%+ of income on rent

rent vs median-wage proxy gap -0.6 pp · 2026-01-01

Annual ACS: lags 9–21 months; the national average understates coastal metros. Bands recalibrated from the spec's 9–14% (a denominator error vs the real ~22–25% renter severe-burden share) to the pre-2020 baseline; see the methodology changelog. The monthly rent-vs-wage proxy below leads the next annual read.

DRS 62 z – PLAUSIBLE as of 2024-07-01

HB2 contested

Medical Bankruptcy Proxy

uninsured rate 8 % · 2023-12-01

adults with medical debt in collections (credit records) 5 % · 2023-06-01

medical CPI momentum 2.9 % YoY · 2026-05-01

Medical bankruptcy is real but not directly measurable in real time from public data. This tile shows the edges of the fracture (who is uninsured, who has medical debt in collections, how fast medical prices are rising) as context, NOT a scored status. The signal is real; the measurement is too indirect and infrequent to score.

DRS 45 z – CONTESTED as of 2026-05-01

The Cost of Existence

What life costs, and how it diverges from how it feels

Four readings of one squeeze: what a middle-class life claims of income today, how the big-ticket costs have outrun that income since 2000, how far real wages have fallen behind, and how much worse it all feels than the fundamentals alone predict.

Each carries its own confidence label; every line traces to an official series, and the math is one click away.

THE COST-TO-EXIST RATIO (CLAIMED SHARE) COMPONENTS ROBUST · ASSEMBLY PLAUSIBLE

The share of each income already spoken for before a single free choice: the same arithmetic at three incomes, recomputed live as you change the assumptions below. The lower household carries the larger share because health premiums, food, fuel, and the shelter floor are flat dollars, and flat dollars are regressive. Select a bracket to see its breakdown.

Breakdown: median household, $83,730: $56,639 claimed (67.6%)

Taxes	$12,093	ROBUST
Debt service	$9,481	PLAUSIBLE
Shelter	$11,700	ROBUST
Food (thrifty, 2+0)	$7,484	ROBUST
Fuel (live, $4.052/gal)	$2,759	PLAUSIBLE
Health premiums	$6,850	ROBUST
Retirement gap	$6,271	CONTESTED
Out-of-pocket health	–	DISABLED: NO VERIFIED MEDIAN

Rebuild the basket: every assumption is yours to change

Shelter level FMR national median ($975/mo, the decency floor) 50-largest-metros average ($1858/mo)

Health plan tier Single ($1,440/yr) Family ($6,850/yr)

Filing status Married filing jointly Single

Children: each adds USDA thrifty food and shifts the household-size adjustment Children: 0

Retirement adequacy target: Social Security replaces 42.6%; you choose what "enough" means 70%

Hasn't this gotten worse? The trajectory since 2000

As a share of income, barely, and that is not the reprieve it sounds like. The necessities bundle (shelter, food, fuel, health) roughly doubled 2000→2024, but pay compounded at nearly the same rate, so the necessities' share rose only a few points. Two bands the indexed Wedge doesn't chart then masked even that: explicit tax and debt service both fell over the period and offset the rise. The compounding is real: it's the indexed Wedge's “prices ×N” story; this view just divides it back out against income. 2025–2026 are projected (income modeled: Census P60 lags a year) and stay flat on the same logic.

Claimed share by year, Median household, 2000–2026.
Year	Income	Explicit	Private	Market	Claimed
2000	$41,990	18.0%	15.0%	39.2%	72.3%
2001	$42,230	17.9%	15.3%	40.0%	73.2%
2002	$42,410	16.3%	15.7%	40.4%	72.4%
2003	$43,320	15.6%	15.8%	40.8%	72.2%
2004	$44,330	15.7%	16.0%	41.2%	72.8%
2005	$46,330	15.8%	16.0%	41.2%	72.9%
2006	$48,200	15.8%	16.0%	41.7%	73.5%
2007	$50,230	15.9%	16.0%	42.1%	73.9%
2008	$50,300	15.7%	16.3%	43.5%	75.5%
2009	$49,780	15.3%	16.7%	42.6%	74.6%
2010	$49,280	15.3%	17.1%	42.0%	74.3%
2011	$50,050	13.3%	17.2%	42.0%	72.5%
2012	$51,020	13.2%	17.4%	41.1%	71.7%
2013	$53,590	15.4%	17.1%	40.4%	72.9%
2014	$53,660	15.3%	17.3%	40.7%	73.3%
2015	$56,520	15.6%	17.1%	39.3%	71.9%
2016	$59,040	15.8%	17.0%	38.6%	71.4%
2017	$61,140	16.0%	16.9%	38.4%	71.4%
2018	$63,180	14.5%	16.8%	38.3%	69.6%
2019	$68,700	14.8%	16.3%	36.8%	67.9%
2020	$68,010	14.7%	16.8%	36.1%	67.6%
2021	$70,780	14.8%	16.5%	36.2%	67.5%
2022	$74,580	14.9%	16.4%	37.8%	69.1%
2023	$80,610	15.0%	15.8%	37.5%	68.2%
2024	$83,730	14.9%	15.7%	37.3%	67.9%
2025 (proj.)	$87,110	14.8%	15.6%	37.2%	67.6%
2026 (proj.)	$90,626	14.8%	15.5%	37.6%	67.9%

Screen-reader data table: the claim split by tier, 2024

Share of income claimed, by tier, 2024.
Tier	Income	Explicit tax	Private tax	Market basics	Claimed	Left
Lower-income household	$49,380	11.7%	17.3%	55.6%	84.6%	15.4%
Median household	$83,730	14.9%	15.7%	37.3%	67.9%	32.1%
Upper-middle household	$136,800	17.7%	14.5%	27.2%	59.4%	40.6%

Show the math

Formula: ClaimedShare = (Taxes + Obligations + Shelter + Food + Fuel + Health + RetirementGap) / Income
Spine: Built on the Fed's own framework: the Debt Service Ratio (11.323096% of disposable income, as of 2025-10-01) carries debt service; shelter enters separately at HUD Fair Market Rent so nothing double-counts. The Fed's broader Financial Obligations Ratio read 14.2% when it was discontinued (2023-07-01) , shown as anchor.
Conservative where it lowers the share: State/local taxes omitted and out-of-pocket health disabled pending a verified median. Both genuinely make the share read LOW, the conservative direction. Refundable credits are the exception: omitting the EITC and Child Tax Credit would overstate tax and read HIGH, so they are modeled and netted, not omitted. At these incomes with no children the credits are zero; add children in the editor and the tax line falls (it can go negative).
Sources: childcare · credits · food · fuel · fuel_price · health · income · retirement · shelter · taxes · tdsp

THE WEDGE: COST-TO-EXIST, INDEXED SINCE 2000 CHART PLAUSIBLE · LINES ROBUST · COMPOSITE CONTESTED

The Cost-to-Exist ratio reads what life costs today; this reads the trajectory. Since ~2000 the big-ticket categories that define a middle-class life have risen far faster than the median income that pays for them, the sourced, honest version of the viral "$100k-in-1995" argument. Every line traces to an official series.

Since 2000, in nominal dollars: Housing (rent) ×2.28 ·Tuition & childcare ×2.66 ·Healthcare ×2.16 ·Food ×1.97 ·Energy ×2.24 ·New vehicles ×1.25 ·All-items CPI ×1.82 ·Median income ×1.99 Read at 2024 (the latest year median income is published). Each multiple is one official series rebased to 100 at 2000: ROBUST, no basket weighting required.

Hover or focus the chart for the exact index, the underlying level, the multiple vs 2000, and each line's source and as-of date.

CAVEAT Healthcare. CPI medical care is a per-UNIT price; it understates the TOTAL health burden, which also grew with utilization. The declared National Health Expenditures-per-capita line is the total-burden alternative.

REQUIRED CAVEAT New vehicles. CPI new vehicles is hedonically quality-adjusted and has risen far less than transaction (sticker) prices, so this line UNDER-states the wedge. The declared average-transaction-price line is the out-of-pocket counterpart; this line never renders without this note.

Rebase, toggle, and reweight: every assumption is yours

Base period: the one disclosed assumption (this is why the chart is PLAUSIBLE, the lines ROBUST)

Cadence: income stays annual either way (never interpolated)

Shelter: one line at a time, never summed

Shade the wedge: the gap between income and one category

Composite line (CONTESTED: disclosed weights) Show the weighted composite on the chart

THE COMPOSITE: ONE WEIGHTED NUMBER CONTESTED: THE WEIGHTING IS A JUDGMENT

×2.25 Weighted by the shares below, the price of the 2000 basket has risen ×2.25 by 2024, while median income rose ×1.99. On the 2000 median of $41,990, keeping pace would take an extra $10,602 a year: the composite wedge. Reweight and watch it move.

shelter 30%medical 17%tuition 23%food 19%energy 7%vehicles 4%

Default shares are seeded from the live Cost-to-Exist default basket (shelter, food, fuel→energy, health→medical dollar lines), with tuition seeded from the editor's center-based childcare cost and vehicles seeded as a small disclosed share (the basket carries no vehicle line). It is a companion to the transparent per-category lines above, never a replacement; the lead is the multiples, which need no weights at all.

Declared alternatives, the manual-feed lines that correct where official CPI under-states cost:

[declared, not currently shipped] Average new-vehicle transaction price (Cox Automotive/KBB or BEA): The out-of-pocket counterpart to the quality-adjusted CPI vehicle line: what a new car actually costs at the dealer, before hedonic adjustment removes the price of added features.
[declared, not currently shipped] National Health Expenditures per capita (CMS, annual, 1960+): The total-burden counterpart to medical-care CPI: per-unit price × rising utilization, the whole health bill per person rather than the price of one unit of care.

Screen-reader data table: every visible line's indexed value by year

Index (100 = 2000), annual headline values; nominal dollars.
Year	All-items CPI	Housing (rent)	Tuition & childcare	Healthcare	Food	Energy	New vehicles	Median income
2000	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
2001	103	104	105	105	103	104	100	101
2002	104	109	112	110	105	98	98	101
2003	107	112	119	114	107	110	97	103
2004	110	115	128	119	111	122	96	106
2005	113	118	136	124	114	142	97	110
2006	117	122	144	129	116	158	96	115
2007	120	128	153	135	121	167	95	120
2008	125	132	161	140	128	190	94	120
2009	125	135	169	144	130	155	95	119
2010	127	136	177	149	131	170	97	117
2011	131	138	184	153	136	196	99	119
2012	133	142	192	159	139	197	101	122
2013	135	146	199	163	141	196	102	128
2014	137	150	205	167	145	195	102	128
2015	138	156	213	171	147	163	103	135
2016	139	161	219	178	148	152	103	141
2017	142	168	224	182	149	164	103	146
2018	146	174	229	186	151	177	102	150
2019	148	180	235	191	154	173	103	164
2020	150	186	240	199	159	158	103	162
2021	157	190	243	201	166	191	109	169
2022	170	201	250	210	182	239	121	178
2023	177	217	258	211	192	227	125	192
2024	182	228	266	216	197	224	125	199
2025	–	–	–	–	–	–	125	–

Show the math

Formula

Indexᵢ(t) = 100 × Seriesᵢ(t) / Seriesᵢ(base)

Base period

Default 2000; selectable among 2000, 2008, 2013, 2019, 2020. The base is the chart's one disclosed assumption: why the chart is PLAUSIBLE while each line is ROBUST. The menu offers only years where every core line already exists, so no line is ever back-filled.

Confidence

Chart PLAUSIBLE (Sound, mechanical computation resting on one disclosed assumption: the base period.); each line ROBUST (Each line is a primary-official series, rebased mechanically.); composite CONTESTED (The basket weighting that collapses the lines into one number is a judgment.).

Disclosures

Lines are NOMINAL dollars: nominal income vs nominal prices. We do not deflate; deflating is what hides the wedge.
Canonical cadence is ANNUAL: monthly CPI components are resampled to calendar-year averages and joined on the year. Income is annual and is never interpolated.
Income is collected each March; the CPI components are annual averages, a timing mismatch, disclosed, not bridged.
CPI components are seasonally-adjusted (the smoothed line) except rent of primary residence (CUUR0000SEHA, NSA); NSA is offered as the fidelity option.
Series begin where their data begins (tuition 1978, Case-Shiller 1987); before that the line is blank, never back-filled. Default base 2000 keeps every core line present.
The 2013 CPS income-redesign break is marked on the income line and never silently bridged.

Income break

The Census redesigned the income questions in the 2014 CPS (2013 income year), raising measured median income by a level shift. The break is marked and never silently bridged; the ACS median (also Census) is the cross-check where it overlaps.

Sources

cpi · energy · food · income · medical · shelter_home · shelter_rent · tuition · vehicles · wages

THE CUMULATIVE REAL WAGE GAP PLAUSIBLE: BASE PERIOD IS YOURS

Base period: the disclosed assumption (this is why it is PLAUSIBLE, not ROBUST)

Show the math

Formula: RealWageIndex(t) = (AHE(t)/CPI(t)) / (AHE(base)/CPI(base)) × 100
Splice discipline: Two wage series, shown separately and never spliced: all-employees AHE begins 2006-03; production-and-nonsupervisory AHE carries the history to 1964. They differ in level and composition.
Cousin on screen: S2, real wage growth (the flow, ROBUST), in the cousins row below.
Sources: cpi · wages_long · wages_modern

THE SENTIMENT GAP (THE VIBES GAP) PLAUSIBLE / CONTESTED: SPEC PUBLISHED IN FULL

Show the math

Specification: OLS: sentiment ~ const + unemployment + cpi_yoy + real_wage_growth, monthly, full available joint sample; Newey-West (HAC, 12 lags) standard errors
Sample: 1965-02-01 to 2026-04-01 (631 months)
R²: 0.2769: published, not hidden; a low R² means the fundamentals never explained the mood fully, which is itself the finding
Stationarity (ADF / KPSS): cpi_yoy: non-stationary (both tests agree) (ADF p=0.0691, KPSS p=0.01) · real_wage_growth: inconclusive (the two tests disagree) (ADF p=0.0006, KPSS p=0.01) · sentiment: inconclusive (the two tests disagree) (ADF p=0.1449, KPSS p=0.0957) · unemployment: stationary (both tests agree) (ADF p=0.0213, KPSS p=0.0711)
Spurious-regression test (Engle-Granger): Residual ADF p = 0.5491: not clearly cointegrated at 5%; treat the gap as descriptive only. The test is published precisely because it does not flatter the model.
Coefficients (std. err.): const: 107.1739 (5.4807) · cpi_yoy: -2.4403 (0.5521) · real_wage_growth: -0.745 (0.9739) · unemployment: -2.3268 (0.8969)
Wage series: Real wage growth uses production & nonsupervisory AHE (AHETPI, 1964+) so the sample reaches 1978; disclosed.
Cousin on screen: S1, the Misery Index (ROBUST, the blunt old version of the same instinct), in the cousins row below.
Sources: cpi · sentiment · unemployment · wages

ESTABLISHED COUSINS: OFFICIAL SERIES, SHOWN FOR ANCHOR

S1 · THE CRUDE FEELING GAUGE

Misery Index (unemployment + CPI inflation)

8.57

▲ +0.32 since last month

8.57 against fixed thresholds (8/11). higher than ~74% of its last decade

1948–2026

WATCH ROBUST abs · z 0.35 DRS 87 AS OF 2026-05-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	11.05	▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff	5.90	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	5.34	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	5.89	· CALM

S2 · WAGES VS PRICES

Real wage growth, year over year (the flow)

-0.82

▼ −0.44 since last month

-0.82 against fixed thresholds (0/-1.5). lower than ~83% of its last decade

2007–2026

WATCH ROBUST abs · z -0.79 DRS 87 AS OF 2026-05-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	-1.67	–
Q4-2018 selloff	1.49	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	1.68	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	1.97	· CALM

S3 · REQUIRED PAYMENTS / INCOME

Financial Obligations Ratio (discontinued 2023-Q3)

14.20

1980–2023

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2023-07-01 FRED

S4 · DEBT PAYMENTS / INCOME

Household debt service ratio

11.16

2005–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FRED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	15.55	–
Q4-2018 selloff	11.67	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	11.65	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	11.59	· CALM

S6 · THE LOWER LEG OF THE K

Share of net worth held by the bottom 50% of households

2.50

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FRED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	1.20	▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff	1.60	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	1.70	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	1.80	· CALM

S7 · THE UPPER LEG OF THE K

Share of net worth held by the top 1% of households

31.60

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FRED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	28.10	· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff	30.00	◆ WATCH
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	30.40	◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020	29.20	◆ WATCH

S8 · INCOME CONCENTRATION, THE LONG OFFICIAL RECORD

Income Gini ratio, families (Census)

0.46

1947–2024

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2024-01-01 FRED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	0.44	–
Q4-2018 selloff	0.45	–
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	0.45	–
COVID crash, Mar 2020	0.46	–

S9 · THE MIDDLE CLASS'S SLICE

Share of net worth held by the middle 40% (50th–90th)

29.60

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FRED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	31.90	◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff	28.80	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	28.20	◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020	29.60	· CALM

S10 · THE PROFESSIONAL BAND

Share of net worth held by the 90th–99th percentiles

36.30

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FRED

S11 · THE GENERATIONAL LEDGER, UPPER ENTRY

Share of net worth held by the Baby Boomer generation

51.60

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FEDDFA

S12 · THE GENERATIONAL LEDGER, LOWER ENTRY

Share of net worth held by the Millennial generation

11.00

1989–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 FEDDFA

S13 · WORKERS' SLICE OF WHAT CORPORATIONS PRODUCE

Labor's share of corporate output (compensation / value added)

54.49

1947–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	60.40	· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff	57.42	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	57.37	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	58.84	· CALM

S14 · PROFITS' SLICE OF THE ECONOMY

Corporate profits after tax / GDP

11.37

1947–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	7.79	· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff	10.04	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	10.15	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	9.12	· CALM

S15 · THE ASSET-SIDE COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE COST BASKET

Household net worth, multiple of disposable income

7.81

1947–2026

STALE ROBUST DRS 95 AS OF 2026-01-01 DERIVED

S20 · THE HEADLINE RAISE, BEFORE INFLATION

Nominal wage growth, year over year

3.45

▼ −0.12 since last month

higher than ~65% of its full record

2007–2026

CALM ROBUST z 0.26 DRS 95 AS OF 2026-05-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	3.28	–
Q4-2018 selloff	3.49	◆ WATCH
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	3.42	◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020	3.46	◆ WATCH

S21 · THE TYPICAL PAYCHECK VS PRICES

Real wage growth, production & nonsupervisory workers

-0.71

▼ −0.43 since last month

lower than ~88% of its last 30 years

1965–2026

WATCH ROBUST z -1.09 DRS 95 AS OF 2026-05-01 DERIVED

In context: what this read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	-1.25	· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff	1.68	· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	1.90	· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020	2.07	· CALM

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– HOW TO READ IT

Start with the three questions: can households afford the non-negotiables, is there anything left over, and where is it breaking. Every tile opens to its own page: the full history, how it is scored, and where it comes from. The macro layer (the stabilizing relationships, the context indicators, the crisis ratio) reads on the Instruments page.

– THE DISCIPLINE

Every number carries its primary source, its timestamp, and a reliability score. Every formula is one click away. On most days, most of this board should read calm, and it is built to say so.