A context tile: shown plainly, with no declared strain side, so it
carries no state of its own.
The full history
1960
high 10.24 · low -5.39 · now 0.35 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
monetary-policy stance
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — CONTEXT: effective fed funds (FEDFUNDS) minus core PCE inflation (PCE_YOY). Stance, not strain — restrictive and accommodative both belong here without a verdict.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
Questions it helps answer
Money & Policy — How tight is money, and how fast is credit growing?