D1 · NEW BUSINESSES BEING BORN — THE ONES LIKELY TO HIRE

High-propensity business applications

146,782

CALM ROBUST z 0.72 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01

Where it sits: higher than ~75% of its last decade.

The full history

2004 high 184,824 · low 79,384 · now 146,782 · 2 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: new businesses being born — the ones likely to hire
Where it sits: higher than ~75% of its last decade — at the 75th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.72 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Census Business Formation Statistics, monthly since 2004. High-propensity = applications with characteristics of future employer businesses.

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.