← All instruments — the full set 1948
high 7.17 · low -2.17 · now 2.80 · 12 recessions shaded 2026
D2 · THE ENGINE UNDER REAL WAGES
Labor productivity growth, year over year
2.80
CALM ROBUST z 0.35 DRS 95 quarterly as of 2026-01-01
Where it sits: higher than ~67% of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- the engine under real wages
- Where it sits
- higher than ~67% of its full record — at the 67th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- 0.35 (strain side: down). 313 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95 — Computed: OPHNFB YoY (output per hour, nonfarm business). The long-run positive — everything else is downstream of this. BLS-produced.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 1.54 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 0.45 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 2.42 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 2.29 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Engine Room — Is anything being built?