← All instruments — the full set 1977
high 14.84 · low 1.20 · now 4.97 · 6 recessions shaded 2026
F5 · LONG-END / CREDIBILITY
30-year Treasury constant-maturity yield
4.97
CALM ROBUST z -0.40 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-06-04
Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- long-end / credibility
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its full record — at the 43th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -0.40 (strain side: up). 12,321 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 4.12 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 3.00 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 1.94 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 1.33 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Debt — Can the debt be carried — and who is carrying it?