← All instruments — the full set 2003
high 2.90 · low 0.43 · now 2.24 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
F8 · EXPECTATIONS ANCHORING
5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate
2.24
CALM ROBUST z -0.03 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-06-05
Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- expectations anchoring
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its full record — at the 42th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -0.03 (strain side: both). 5,861 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 2.31 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 1.98 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 1.74 | ◆ WATCH |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 1.23 | ▲ EXTREME |
Questions it helps answer
- Prices — Are prices behaving — and believed?