Where it sits: higher than ~72% of its last decade.
The full history
1948
high 21.93 · low 3.01 · now 8.25 · 12 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the crude feeling gauge
Where it sits
higher than ~72% of its last decade — at the 72th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
0.20 (strain side: up). 117 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 87 — Reliability adjusted (small reduction). The producing agency (BLS) has operated without a Senate-confirmed commissioner since August 2025, when the prior commissioner was removed following routine data revisions, and has curtailed CPI and PPI collection in some areas, citing resources. An independent Department of Labor Inspector General review is underway. No data manipulation has been demonstrated, and the agency continues to publish unfavorable readings. This adjustment reflects elevated uncertainty and reduced sampling precision, not evidence of false data, and it lifts when leadership is confirmed and collection is restored. Sources: DOL OIG audit announcement (Sept 2025); BLS CPI collection-reduction notices (2025). Computed: UNRATE + CPI YoY. Shown as the established cousin beside the Sentiment Gap (spec 5.3).
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.