S2 · WAGES VS PRICES

Real wage growth, year over year (the flow)

-0.38

CALM ROBUST z -0.55 DRS 87 monthly as of 2026-04-01

Where it sits: lower than ~81% of its last decade.

The full history

2007 high 7.79 · low -3.58 · now -0.38 · 2 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: wages vs prices
Where it sits: lower than ~81% of its last decade — at the 19th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: -0.55 (strain side: down). 117 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 87 — Reliability adjusted (small reduction). The producing agency (BLS) has operated without a Senate-confirmed commissioner since August 2025, when the prior commissioner was removed following routine data revisions, and has curtailed CPI and PPI collection in some areas, citing resources. An independent Department of Labor Inspector General review is underway. No data manipulation has been demonstrated, and the agency continues to publish unfavorable readings. This adjustment reflects elevated uncertainty and reduced sampling precision, not evidence of false data, and it lifts when leadership is confirmed and collection is restored. Sources: DOL OIG audit announcement (Sept 2025); BLS CPI collection-reduction notices (2025). Computed: AHE (all employees) YoY − CPI YoY. The cousin of the Cumulative Real Wage Gap (spec 5.1), which asks how deep the hole still is.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.