Where it sits: higher than ~65% of its full record.
The full history
2007
high 8.10 · low 0.60 · now 3.45 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the headline raise, before inflation
Where it sits
higher than ~65% of its full record: at the 65th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
0.26 (strain side: both). 231 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (CES0500000003(t) / CES0500000003(t−12m) − 1), the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings, all employees. The nominal sibling of real wage growth (S2): S2 subtracts CPI to ask whether the raise beat prices; this is the raise itself, before inflation. Strain is EITHER tail: the hot side is wage-price pressure (fast enough to force Fed tightening), the cold side labor deterioration (raises that no longer beat inflation). It should run near its pre-pandemic trend (~2.5–3.0%); running hot or cold against that band is the tell. Three disclosures travel with the line: (1) AHE is MIX-ADJUSTED: in downturns, low-wage job losses can lift the average mechanically, so the aggregate can read high while typical pay is not; (2) the pre-pandemic band predates the 2022–2026 regime shift, so 'returning to ~2.6%' may itself be a deterioration signal depending on real CPI at the time of reading; (3) revised monthly with the Employment Situation; prior months can move ±0.1–0.2pp. AHE (all employees) begins 2006-03, so the YoY begins 2007-03; AHETPI (S2b) carries the production & nonsupervisory wage history back to 1964. Feeds The Wedge as the income-growth cross-check. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
3.28
–
Q4-2018 selloff
3.49
◆ WATCH
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
3.42
◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020
3.46
◆ WATCH
Questions it helps answer
Work: Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?
The Household: Can households carry their own ledger?