S21 · THE TYPICAL PAYCHECK VS PRICES

Real wage growth, production & nonsupervisory workers

-0.71

WATCH ROBUST z -1.09 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: lower than ~88% of its last 30 years.

The full history

1965 high 6.55 · low -7.03 · now -0.71 · 8 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the typical paycheck vs prices
Where it sits: lower than ~88% of its last 30 years: at the 12th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: -1.09 (strain side: down). 357 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Computed: AHETPI YoY − CPI YoY, real wage growth for production & nonsupervisory workers (~80% of employment, AHETPI since 1964, S2b). The cut the addendum prefers: less compositionally distorted by high-earner separations and hires than the all-employee real wage (S2). When this turns persistently negative, paychecks are losing to prices and the inflation burden lands on workers, not capital: the mechanism behind affordability deterioration. Two disclosures: (1) AHE is MIX-ADJUSTED: it measures the AVERAGE worker's paycheck, not your paycheck (in downturns, low-wage job losses can lift the average mechanically); (2) the index-since-a-base-date accountability view (e.g. base = inauguration) is a display feature, deferred. The production-worker cousin of S2 and of the Cumulative Real Wage Gap (spec 5.1). Scored against 30 years. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.