Where it sits: lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank.
The full history
2000
high 3.00 · low 1.20 · now 1.90 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
worker confidence — who dares to quit
Where it sits
lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank — at the 2th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-1.32 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — The cleanest early read on labor softening: workers stop quitting before employers start firing. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.80
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
2.30
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
2.30
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
1.90
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work — Is the labor market holding — and how broadly?
The Mood — How does it feel out there — and does the feeling match?
The Freeze — What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?