Where it sits: lower than ~98% of its last decade: near the bottom of its record. Trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank.
The full history
2000
high 3.00 · low 1.20 · now 1.90 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
worker confidence: who dares to quit
Where it sits
lower than ~98% of its last decade: near the bottom of its record. Trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank: at the 2th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-1.30 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: The cleanest early read on labor softening: workers stop quitting before employers start firing. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.80
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
2.30
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
2.30
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
1.90
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work: Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?
The Mood: How does it feel out there, and does the feeling match?
The Freeze: What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?