Where it sits: higher than ~62% of its last decade.
The full history
1994
high 22.90 · low 6.60 · now 8.10 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the slack the headline rate hides
Where it sits
higher than ~62% of its last decade — at the 62th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-0.14 (strain side: up). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — Adds involuntary part-time and marginally attached workers to the unemployment count. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
11.10
▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff
7.60
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
7.20
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
8.80
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work — Is the labor market holding — and how broadly?