C14 · ROLLOVER EXPOSURE

Refinancing wall (marketable debt maturing within one year)

33.03

CALM ROBUST z 0.12 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-31

Where it sits: near the middle of its last 30 years.

The full history

2001 high 45.27 · low 23.01 · now 33.03 · 3 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: rollover exposure
Where it sits: near the middle of its last 30 years — at the 54th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: 0.12 (strain side: up). 305 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Percent of marketable Treasury debt maturing within one year, computed from the per-CUSIP detail of MSPD Table III — the machine-readable source behind Treasury Bulletin Table FD-5. Differs from FD-5's 'held by private investors' concept: this includes Federal Reserve (SOMA) holdings, disclosed. The denominator is the official Total Marketable row; matured-unredeemed and Federal Financing Bank securities (~0.5% combined, verified 2026-06-07) are conservatively excluded from the numerator. The completion of C4/C5/F10: how much must roll, next to what the debt costs and how the rolls are going. Monthly since 2001.

TREASURY ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.