C15 · WHO HAS BEEN FUNDING THE DEBT — AND WHETHER THEY STILL ARE

Foreign share of federal debt held by the public

30.52

WATCH ROBUST z -1.20 DRS 95 quarterly as of 2025-07-01

Where it sits: lower than ~84% of its last 30 years.

The full history

1970 high 48.96 · low 4.42 · now 30.52 · 8 recessions shaded 2025

What it measures: who has been funding the debt — and whether they still are
Where it sits: lower than ~84% of its last 30 years — at the 16th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: -1.20 (strain side: down). 117 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Computed: 100 × federal debt held by foreign and international investors (Treasury Bulletin OFS-2, via FRED, billions) / federal debt held by the public (millions ÷ 1000). Quarterly since 1970. Strain side declared DOWN at introduction (2026-06-07): a retreating foreign share while issuance grows means the marginal buyer is stepping back and absorption shifts home — the leg of the sustainability equation C14/F10/F12 did not read. Dependence cuts both ways; the high side shows up in F12 and the yield tiles, disclosed. Ownership data publish ~2 quarters late — the long grace covers the lag, and the tile reads STALE honestly if the Bulletin slips further.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.