White-collar payroll share (professional & business services)
16.57
CALMROBUSTz -0.96DRS 95monthlyas of 2026-05-01
Where it sits: lower than ~89% of its last decade.
The full history
1939
high 17.39 · low 6.93 · now 16.57 · 13 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
white-collar composition of employment
Where it sits
lower than ~89% of its last decade — at the 11th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-0.96 (strain side: down). 119 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — 100 × professional & business services employment (USPBS) ÷ total private payrolls (USPRIV), BLS supersector — ROBUST. The supersector includes temp-help and admin/waste services; the narrower Professional/Scientific/Technical cut (CES6054000001, input C17c) is carried as a disclosed secondary lens. A composition / K-shape signal beside job breadth (D5); a falling share is the strain side. Trend-dominated → decade-relative scoring. BLS-produced; subject to the integrity-events DRS factor.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
15.54
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
16.65
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
16.69
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
16.70
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Freeze — What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?