This tile is stale: the value shown is the last
one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
1990
high 2.45 · low 1.24 · now 1.86 · 4 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the leading hiring tell
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: 100 × temp-help services (TEMPHELPS) ÷ total private payrolls. Temps are added first and cut first, so this leads the cycle; a falling share is the strain side. Trend-dominated → decade-relative. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
2.02
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
2.34
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
2.31
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
2.24
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Freeze: What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?