C18 · THE LEADING HIRING TELL

Temp-help share of private payrolls

1.84

WATCH ROBUST z -1.68 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: lower than ~92% of its last decade.

The full history

1990 high 2.45 · low 1.24 · now 1.84 · 4 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the leading hiring tell
Where it sits: lower than ~92% of its last decade — at the 8th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: -1.68 (strain side: down). 119 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — 100 × temp-help services (TEMPHELPS) ÷ total private payrolls. Temps are added first and cut first, so this leads the cycle; a falling share is the strain side. Trend-dominated → decade-relative. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.