← All instruments — the full set 2000
high 6.10 · low 2.80 · now 3.20 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
C19 · THE LOW-HIRE HALF OF THE FREEZE
Hires rate (JOLTS)
3.20
WATCH ROBUST z -1.23 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01
Where it sits: lower than ~93% of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- the low-hire half of the freeze
- Where it sits
- lower than ~93% of its full record — at the 7th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -1.23 (strain side: down). 305 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95 — Completes the JOLTS churn triplet with quits (C10) and layoffs (C20). Low hires beside low layoffs is a frozen market. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 3.30 | ▲ EXTREME |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 3.90 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 3.90 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 3.40 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Freeze — What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?