C20 · THE LOW-FIRE HALF OF THE FREEZE

Layoffs & discharges rate (JOLTS)

1.10

CALM ROBUST z -0.46 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01

Where it sits: lower than ~89% of its full record.

The full history

2000 high 8.60 · low 0.90 · now 1.10 · 3 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the low-fire half of the freeze
Where it sits: lower than ~89% of its full record — at the 11th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window: -0.46 (strain side: up). 305 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Rising involuntary separations are the direct shedding tell; low layoffs beside low hires is the freeze. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.