C21 · BEVERIDGE-CURVE TIGHTNESS

Vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (V/U)

1.03

CALM ROBUST z -0.29 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01

Where it sits: near the middle of its last decade.

The full history

2000 high 2.04 · low 0.15 · now 1.03 · 3 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: Beveridge-curve tightness
Where it sits: near the middle of its last decade — at the 41th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: -0.29 (strain side: down). 117 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Job openings (JTSJOL) ÷ unemployment level (UNEMPLOY), joined on exact dates. The tightness gauge the FOMC watches; falling is loosening before the headline rate moves. Trend-dominated → decade-relative. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.