C22 · THE 'APPLYING FOR A YEAR' SIGNAL

Long-term unemployed share (27+ weeks)

27.21

WATCH ROBUST z 1.17 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: higher than ~90% of its full record.

The full history

1948 high 45.20 · low 3.01 · now 27.21 · 12 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the 'applying for a year' signal
Where it sits: higher than ~90% of its full record — at the 90th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window: 1.17 (strain side: up). 940 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — 100 × unemployed 27+ weeks (UEMP27OV) ÷ unemployment level (UNEMPLOY), exact-date join. Cross-checks the direct FRED series LNS13025703. A rising share means the market has stopped absorbing the jobless. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.