This tile is stale: the value shown is the last
one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
1948
high 45.20 · low 3.01 · now 27.45 · 12 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the 'applying for a year' signal
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: 100 × unemployed 27+ weeks (UEMP27OV) ÷ unemployment level (UNEMPLOY), exact-date join. Cross-checks the direct FRED series LNS13025703. A rising share means the market has stopped absorbing the jobless. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
21.35
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
20.44
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
21.14
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
15.82
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Freeze: What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?