C23 · THE FIRST-FOOTHOLD COLLAPSE

New-entrant share of the unemployed

11.19

CALM ROBUST z 0.37 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: higher than ~65% of its full record.

The full history

1967 high 15.89 · low 2.53 · now 11.19 · 8 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the first-foothold collapse
Where it sits: higher than ~65% of its full record — at the 65th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window: 0.37 (strain side: up). 712 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — 100 × unemployment level, new entrants (LNS13023569) ÷ total unemployment level (UNEMPLOY), exact-date join. A rising new-entrant share means the bottom rung is missing. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.