← All instruments — the full set 1991
high 11.99 · low 0.63 · now 1.56 · 4 recessions shaded 2026
C25 · SLOW SYSTEMIC CRE RISK
Commercial real-estate loan delinquency rate, banks
1.56
WATCH ROBUST z 1.80 DRS 95 quarterly as of 2026-01-01
Where it sits: higher than ~85% of its last decade.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- slow systemic CRE risk
- Where it sits
- higher than ~85% of its last decade — at the 85th percentile of its last decade.
- z vs. its window
- 1.80 (strain side: up). 39 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 4.64 | ▲ EXTREME |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 0.71 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 0.69 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 0.83 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Plumbing — Is the banking and credit system carrying its load?