Where it sits: lower than ~68% of its last decade.
The full history
1972
high 2.65 · low 1.37 · now 1.74 · 7 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
distribution of labor-market stress
Where it sits
lower than ~68% of its last decade — at the 32th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-0.46 (strain side: up). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — Black unemployment (LNS14000006) ÷ white unemployment (LNS14000003). A standard early-stress and equity indicator; the ratio widening is the strain side.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
2.09
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
1.89
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
1.56
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
1.79
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work — Is the labor market holding — and how broadly?