C3 · FED'S PREFERRED GAUGE

Core PCE inflation, year over year

3.29

CALM ROBUST z 0.39 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-04-01

Where it sits: higher than ~73% of its last decade.

The full history

1960 high 10.14 · low 0.63 · now 3.29 · 9 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: Fed's preferred gauge
Where it sits: higher than ~73% of its last decade — at the 73th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.39 (strain side: both). 118 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Computed: 100 × (PCEPILFE(t) / PCEPILFE(t−12m) − 1).

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.