C5 · HOW MUCH OF EVERY REVENUE DOLLAR THE DEBT ALREADY CLAIMS

Net interest / federal receipts (the ratio's spine)

18.13

WATCH ROBUST z 1.88 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-07-31

Where it sits: higher than ~99% of its last 30 years: near the top of its record. Trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank.

The full history

2016 high 18.13 · low 7.14 · now 18.13 · 1 recession shaded 2026

How it is read

What it measures: how much of every revenue dollar the debt already claims
Where it sits: higher than ~99% of its last 30 years: near the top of its record. Trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank: at the 99th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: 1.88 (strain side: up). 126 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Trailing-12-month interest expense on public issues over trailing-12-month total receipts (MTS Table 4): receipts are seasonal, so a monthly ratio would whipsaw. This is the present-tense spine of the Crisis Ratio; the conditional cascade lives at crisisratio.com.

Where it comes from

TREASURY ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.

What it read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008	no data: series began later
Q4-2018 selloff	9.63	▲ EXTREME
Curve inversion, Aug 2019	10.47	◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020	10.64	◆ WATCH

Questions it helps answer

The Debt : Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?