Where it sits: higher than ~96% of its last 30 years — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank.
The full history
1966
high 132.66 · low 30.60 · now 122.57 · 8 recessions shaded 2025
How it is read
What it measures
the debt against the economy that carries it
Where it sits
higher than ~96% of its last 30 years — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank — at the 96th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window
1.47 (strain side: up). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — Official OMB/FRED computation, quarterly since 1966. The longer annual view (1947+) lives on the Long View, derived from the Treasury archive and GDP. Scored against a generation (30y): for a valuation ratio the level IS the signal; full history would compare against the pre-globalization economy (foreign earnings, intangibles — disclosed).
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
67.28
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
105.05
◆ WATCH
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
104.61
◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020
106.77
◆ WATCH
Questions it helps answer
The Debt — Can the debt be carried — and who is carrying it?