C9 · IS A RECESSION UNDERWAY, BY THE REALIZED CONVENTION

Sahm Rule recession indicator

0.10

CALM ROBUST z -0.33 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-05-01

Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.

The full history

1959 high 9.50 · low -0.33 · now 0.10 · 9 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: is a recession underway, by the realized convention
Where it sits: near the middle of its full record — at the 54th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window: -0.33 (strain side: up). 797 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Not a forecast: a present-tense reading of a realized threshold (3-month average unemployment 0.50pp above its 12-month low). Built by Claudia Sahm explicitly as a non-predictive trigger; 0.50 is the declared line, shown on the tile.

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.