C9 · IS A RECESSION UNDERWAY, BY THE REALIZED CONVENTION
Sahm Rule recession indicator
-0.07
STALEROBUSTDRS 95monthlyas of 2026-08-01
This tile is stale: the value shown is the last
one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
1959
high 9.50 · low -0.33 · now -0.07 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
is a recession underway, by the realized convention
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Not a forecast: a present-tense reading of a realized threshold (3-month average unemployment 0.50pp above its 12-month low). Built by Claudia Sahm explicitly as a non-predictive trigger; 0.50 is the declared line, shown on the tile.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.27
◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff
0.07
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
0.07
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
0.30
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
Work: Is the labor market holding, and how broadly?