Where it sits: lower than ~61% of its full record.
The full history
1971
high 5.20 · low -1.10 · now -0.49 · 7 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
how tight or loose financial conditions are
Where it sits
lower than ~61% of its full record — at the 39th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
-0.49 (strain side: up). 2,891 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — A published, externally-maintained Fed index of financial conditions — not a Plumbline-authored composite, any more than CPI is. Positive = tighter than average. Weekly since 1971.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.23
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
-0.42
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
-0.54
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
0.17
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Ledge — How high is the market — and what is under it?