Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.
The full history
1962
high 4.32 · low 0.06 · now 0.74 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
rate volatility
Where it sits
near the middle of its full record — at the 46th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
-0.24 (strain side: up). 16,071 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
CONTESTED — a proxy or scholarly input; read as descriptive, not a verdict. The full definition and its limits live on the Methodology page.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 60 — Annualized standard deviation of daily 10-year yield changes over the trailing 20 sessions (×√252). A shippable, keyless proxy for the proprietary MOVE index (F3); PLAUSIBLE — disclosed.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.19
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
0.45
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
0.88
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
2.26
▲ EXTREME
Questions it helps answer
The Ledge — How high is the market — and what is under it?